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Intel (INTC) gets symbolic win at Dreamworks

It is not very many chips, but it means a great deal, especially from a PR standpoint. Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) has taken the processor franchise at Dreamworks from smaller rival AMD (NYSE: AMD). Dreamworks indicated that the Intel products worked much better, a public slap at the incumbent.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "DreamWorks Animation said the resulting increase in computing power would substantially shorten the time needed for many computing chores and aid the studio's planned shift next year to 3-D animation." Given how good the press is for Intel, it should be giving the chips to Dreamworks for free. Perhaps that is how it got the contract.

Intel's new eight-core chips are extremely powerful and this should be of real benefit to Dreamworks.

The news is another demonstration of how bad things are at AMD. The company still has over $5 billion in debt and barely breaks even on an operating basis. Its shares are just above $5. In 2006, they were above $40.

AMD can ill afford having its name on the front page matched with another customer loss.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Spint (S) wants its customers back

Sprint (NYSE:S) often shows up in customer services surveys as one of the least respected companies in America. That has caused a number of its cellular subscribers to drop service and take their business elsewhere.

To try to win back customers, Sprint's CEO is even going on TV. According to The New York Times, "In the commercials, Mr. Hesse asks customers to e-mail him with complaints and to give Sprint another chance." Daniel R. Hesse is Sprint's new top man.

Hitting the airwaves with a new message hardly seems worth the time, or money.

Sprint may be able to get some customers back with its new Samsung Instinct phone, which has gotten good reviews. But, there is no evidence in polls about how subscribers view the company to indicate that the firm has become a symbol of an American cellular provider with happy customers.

Fix the problem. Stay off the tube.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Ford (F): Not much of a silver lining in China

Sales of Ford (NYSE: F) vehicles rose 21% in China during the first half. That sounds impressive, until investors look at the figures. According to Reuters, the No.2 U.S. car company and its partners sold 172,411 vehicles.

While selling cars on the mainland may bring Ford good revenue, it needs to be viewed in the context of the company's U.S. sales. The firm sold 174,091 vehicles in America in June, down almost 28%.

When looking at the car market in China, there is the temptation to think that because the opportunity is so big and growing so quickly it can offset the awful conditions in the U.S. market.

For Ford, those numbers are just not big enough. What makes the company's China operations valuable is that they could be sold to raise money for the parent.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Pre-market movers (BRCL) (ODP)

Syntax-Brillian Corp (NASDAQ:BRLC) is off 70% as it declares Chapter 11.

Office Depot (NYSE:ODP) is off almost 10% on poor same-store sales.

IndyMac (NYSE:IMB) is off oer 30% on news that it may not have enough capital.

Lundin Mining (NYSE:LMC) is down 4% on the falling price of metals.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Early analyst calls (MMC) (NCR)

Citigroup upgraded Marsh & McClennan (NYSE:MMC) to "buy" from "hold" according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Baird upgraded NCR (NYSE:NCR) to "outperform" from "neutral."

Macrovision Solutions (NASDAQ:MVSN) was started as a "buy" at Kaufman Brothers, according to the AP.

Bankrate (NASDAQ:RATE) Cut to Hold from Buy at Collins Stewart, according to StreetInsider.

China inflation, up 7%, presents risks

During June, inflation in China was up 7.1%. That is somewhat better than recent figures, but is still very troubling. According to Reuters, "for the first six months as a whole, consumer prices were 7.9 percent higher than a year earlier -- well above the government's official full-year target of 4.8 percent."

Over time, and that time may be brief, high costs in China means rising prices for exports to places like the US. Much of the inflation on the mainland comes from rocketing oil and commodities prices. Those will eventually have to be passed through the manufacturing process and that means that prices for American-bought goods sourced in China are going up. That in turn, puts pressure on US inflation rates.

The China numbers should remind US companies and policy markers that rising costs are a global issue and not a local one. The rising price of oil and food will take their toll across the world and cannot be contained in any one geographic sector. As the American economy slows, increasing prices out of China also increase the risk of stagflation.

All in all, China is just the first link in a long chain and that link is weakening.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Overseas markets falter, banks down over 3% (LFC) (SNE) (BCS)

Markets in Asis and Europe have sold off sharply overnight due to rising concern that the credit markets will get much worse.

The Nikkei was off 2.5% to 13,033.Sony (NYSE:SNE) was down 4.1% to 4420 yen.

The Hang Seng was down 3% to 21,255. China Life (NYSE:LFC) was down 3.9% to 25.90 yuan. China Unicom (NYSE:CHU) was off 3.9% to 14.34

The FTSE opened down 2.6% to 5,368. Barclays (NYSE:BCS) was down 3.5% to 272.25 pence. Many other European banks stocks traded down over 4%.

Data from Reuters.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Talk of $200 oil picks up steam

Now and then, a media outlet or analyst will talk about $200 crude. Most analysis shows oil peaking at $160 or so and dropping back over the next few months. The commodity may never trade at $60 again, but most of its rise may be over.

Unfortunately, the picture of the energy world seems to be changing. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Oil's historic ascent from $100 to nearly $150 a barrel in just six months is lending weight to a far grimmer prediction: Crude could reach $200 a barrel by the end of the year." The paper adds that this could mean gas would rise to $6 a gallon.

Oil may actually go higher especially if demand in China and India continues to rise and oil producing countries, including Venezuela and Nigeria, stay politically unstable.

What is truly frightening is what $200 oil would do to the U.S. economy. It would almost certainly send companies in the automotive and airline sectors into Chapter 11. Some consumers could see the cost of gas and heating their homes become as high as 20% to 25% of their total cost of living. That would destroy current retail spending habits.

But the economic effect would be more widespread than the airline and car sectors. Every industry that has to ship large amounts of its products, from newspapers to food processors, would be faced with nearly unimaginable additions to their costs of doing business.

All of that would send the US economy into a long and very deep recession. If nothing is done about oil prices soon, the odds of tremendous trouble go way, way up.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Talk turns to worsening earnings

As each day passes, estimates for how bad Q2 earnings will be grows. According to The Wall Street Journal, "analysts estimate S&P 500 operating earnings -- income excluding one-time items -- fell 11.5% in the second quarter."

While the paper points out that earnings often come in a bit worse than expected, this quarter could be a bit different. Everyone expected the numbers to be bad in sectors including banking, brokerage, insurance, autos, and airlines. But the real question is whether business and consumer spending have been hit harder than predicted.

If spending is down, even companies which are expected to do fairly well such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) could face rough earnings reports as big business and the little consumers defer purchases which they feel they cannot afford. That means that tech earnings, which were expected to be OK, could take a big hit.

If tech falters, what is left? Energy and commodities companies? Perhaps, but that is thin ground on which to build an earnings season.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

More cuts at GM are not going to help

General Motors (NYSE: GM) may be faced with cutting thousand of white-collar jobs and selling or closing some of its brands. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Management may also present the board with options for raising additional cash to help GM make it through the downturn."

All of these plans, except raising money, may be a little late for shareholders. GM's stock has dropped over 75% from its 52-week high and now trades just above $10. Changing over from a product mix that is heavy in trucks to one that emphasizes light sedans with good gas mileage could take the better part of a couple of years. While GM may make money outside the U.S., that does not offset huge losses in its home market.

GM was caught flat-footed when oil prices spiked up. That might be forgiven, if competitors like Honda (NYSE: HMC) had not made certain that they had large numbers of fuel-efficient vehicles in their product mix. GM must now attack a market that is already occupied by successful competition.

With a $6 billion market cap, if GM has to raise $10 billion, the stock price is going way, way down.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Pre-market movers (TWX) (UBS)

APP Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:APPX) is up over 30% on a buy-out offer from Fresenius.

Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) is up almost 2% after positive comments in Barron's.

Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ:TEVA) is off 6% on news that one of its drug trials went poorly.

UBS (NYSE:UBS) is down over 5% on concerns that the bank will report large write-offs for the last quarter.

Stocks made trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Early analyst calls (AAPL) (BRCM) (MRK)

Deutsche Bank downgraded AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) to "hold" from "buy", according to MarketWatch.

Lehman Brothers reiterated its "overweight" rating on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) ahead of the 3G iPhone going on sale, according to the AP.

UBS downgraded Merck (NYSE:MRK) from "buy" to "neutral", according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Piper Jaffray upgraded Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) to "buy" from "neutral."

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

As GE earnings come around, Immelt faces pressure

It is hard to imagine GE (NYSE: GE) ever replacing or cutting the power of its CEO, Jeff Immelt, but the press is mentioning these alternatives ahead of the company's Q2 earnings report. According to The New York Post, "Jeff Immelt, the embattled GE chief executive, has got six months to save his skin."

GE's Q1 earnings were below Wall Street estimates and the only segment of the company which did really well was its huge infrastructure division. Investors question whether the most recently quarter will be any better, especially with a slowing economy.

GE's stock is already down from a 52-week high of $42.15 to its current price of $26.91. Over the last year, the stock is down 30% compared to the Dow, which is off 17%.

GE still faces the problem that many of its shareholder think it is too big to manage and is in too many businesses. Added to that may be trouble growing overseas which the company is counting on to drive revenue. With the some economic problems spreading to the developing world that is hardly a lock.

If GE can't deliver when it announces its next set of numbers, the shares are likely to move closer to $20.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

For Google, YouTube starts to look like failure

About two years ago, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) paid $1.65 billion for YouTube. The purchase is now starting to look like a poor decision.

According to The New York Post, "YouTube's numbers for 2008 don't look pretty: while 3 billion videos are viewed every month, revenues could total an anemic sub-$200 million this year."

Some analysts believe that the trouble with YouTube is that the videos are too short, or that it is difficult for marketers to figure out in advance which content will pull well with users. Those views are wrong.

The basic trouble with YouTube is that that video quality of 99% of the content is terribly poor. Source material for many clips comes from home video cameras or cellphones. None of that is of "production value." Putting ads that cost millions of dollars to create next to low-resolution content is a hard sell.

YouTube has a very basic problem. Most of its videos don't look good and a lot of them are barely watchable.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Placing blame for high oil prices

The headline in The New York Times reads "American Energy Policy, Asleep At the Spigot." The rise in old prices could have been prevented to some extent. The question is who is at fault. Describing how out of control crude consumption is in the U.S., the paper writes, "Home to only 4 percent of the world's population, the nation slurps up about a quarter of the planet's oil -- and Americans' daily use is nearly twice the combined consumption of the Chinese and Indians."

Well said, and true. But, the actions described are terribly American and could not, under the current economic and government system, have been prevented.

Oil consumption is not unlike the use of cigarettes or liquor. The government can tell citizens that the behavior is dangerous. It can even raises taxes on the products to remarkable levels. But, it is not willing to legislate limited use of oil. It is not willing to create a "Prohibition" like Congress did when it tried to eliminate drinking. The attempt lasted from 1920 to 1933. Americans drank right through the 13 years.

No matter how bad the oil crisis is now, on the consumption side, the U.S. government is poorly equipped to change the behavior of its citizens unless there is a period of emergency. In WW II, people were willing to go along with restrictions in their use of certain goods and services, like rubber.

With gas over $4 and going higher, the present turmoil has the hallmarks of a grave danger. Perhaps it is time for Congress to pass an "Emergency Gas Act." Nothing short of that is going to change how fossil fuels are consumed.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Last updated: July 08, 2008: 09:32 PM

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